"Knowing a Little Bit of Everything" is Just an Illusion of Overconfidence - Huxiu.com#
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Highlights#
The convenience of accessing online resources may exacerbate our overconfidence, as we mistake the abundant knowledge on the internet for our own memory. ⤴️ ^bd24da54
We think we understand just by bookmarking.
Many people overestimate their ability to learn from observing others, leading to the "illusion of skill acquisition." ⤴️ ^4e1fca7f
We think we know it all just by watching videos.
These things cannot be learned through short videos. ⤴️ ^5a7196a0
Learning through short videos is not a good method.
What can people do to avoid these pitfalls? One simple solution is to test themselves.
For example, if you are evaluating your ability to perform an unfamiliar task, don't rely solely on a vague understanding of the concepts involved. Instead, spend more time carefully considering the specific steps required to achieve the goal. You may find significant gaps in your knowledge that need to be filled before you step forward on your own. A better approach is to find an expert and ask them what they are doing - such a conversation should correct any arrogant assumptions you may hold. ⤴️ ^f0f755c2
Detail the process of problem-solving to avoid this issue.
"Knowing a Little Bit of Everything" is Just an Illusion of Overconfidence#
This article explores the illusion of overconfidence in people's knowledge, known as the "knowledge illusion." People often overestimate their understanding of scientific and technical issues, but when asked to explain in detail, they often know very little. This knowledge illusion can lead to problems in interviews, work, and relationships.
• 🧠 The "knowledge illusion" is the illusion of overconfidence in people's knowledge, leading to problems in many areas.
• 🌐 The convenience of the internet may exacerbate the knowledge illusion, as we mistake the information on the internet for our own knowledge.
• 💡 Evaluating one's knowledge and abilities, and acknowledging the limitations of one's thinking, can help avoid the pitfalls of the knowledge illusion.
If you consider yourself fairly intelligent and well-educated, you may think you have a decent understanding of how the world works and some familiarity with the inventions and natural phenomena around us.
Now, consider the following questions: How is a rainbow formed? Why can a sunny day be colder than a cloudy day? How does a helicopter fly? How does a toilet flush?
Next, ask yourself: Can you provide detailed answers to any or all of these questions? Or do you only have a vague concept of each situation?
If you're like many participants in psychological studies, you may initially think you'll do quite well. However, when asked to provide in-depth answers to each question, most people are completely stumped, just like you might be now.
This bias is known as the "knowledge illusion."
You may think these examples are trivial - after all, these questions are a bit like those asked by curious children, and the worst outcome might be a little embarrassment in front of family. However, this knowledge illusion can affect our judgment in many areas, such as exaggerating our knowledge reserves in job interviews, overlooking colleagues' contributions, or even taking on a job that we are completely unprepared for.
Many people may go through life without realizing this intellectual arrogance and its consequences. The good news is that some psychologists believe there are some super simple methods to avoid this cognitive trap.
The Unknown Unknowns
The knowledge illusion was first revealed in 2002.
In a series of studies, Leonid Rozenblit and Frank Keil from Yale University provided participants with examples of explanations of scientific phenomena and technological mechanisms, and rated them on a scale of 1 to 7 based on how "vague" or "thorough" their understanding was. This ensured that all participants reached a consensus on what constituted a "vague" or "thorough" understanding of a topic.
The testing then began. Faced with more scientific and technical questions, participants had to assess their perceived ability to answer each question using the same rating scale and then provide detailed explanations.
The researchers found that participants' initial assessments of their understanding were often overly optimistic. They believed they could write paragraphs about the topic, but usually only provided basic summaries in reality, and many were surprised by how little they actually knew.
The researchers suspected that this overconfidence stemmed from participants' ability to mentally visualize the concepts involved; for example, when it came to the flight of a helicopter, they could easily visualize the process in their minds, which gave them confidence in explaining its mechanics.
© PilotCareerHQ
Since this groundbreaking paper, psychologists have revealed the knowledge illusion in many different contexts. For example, Matthew Fisher, an assistant professor of marketing at Texas A&M University, found that many college graduates greatly overestimated their understanding of their major after leaving school.
Similar to the initial experiment, participants were asked to assess their understanding of different concepts before providing detailed explanations. However, this time the questions came from their major studied years ago.
Due to the natural decay of memory, participants seemed to have forgotten many important details, but they were unaware of how much knowledge they had lost, leading to overconfidence in their initial predictions. When judging their understanding, they assumed they knew as much as they did when fully immersed in the subject.
Further research suggests that the convenience of accessing online resources may exacerbate our overconfidence, as we mistake the abundant knowledge on the internet for our own memory.
© Wikimedia
Fisher had one group of participants answer questions using a search engine, such as "How does a zipper work?" while another group was only asked to assess their understanding of the topic without using any additional sources.
Subsequently, both groups of participants underwent the original test on the knowledge illusion and answered four additional questions, such as "How is a tornado formed?" or "Why is a cloudy night warmer?"
He found that people who used the internet for the initial questions showed greater overconfidence in the subsequent tasks.
The Illusion of Skill Acquisition
Perhaps more concerning is that many people overestimate their ability to learn from observing others, leading to the "illusion of skill acquisition."
Michael Kardas, a postdoctoral researcher in management and marketing at Northwestern University, had participants repeatedly watch videos of various skills, such as throwing darts or moonwalking, up to a maximum of 20 times. They had to estimate their own abilities and then attempt to perform the task.
Most participants believed that simply watching video clips would help them learn these skills. And the more times they watched the videos, the greater their initial confidence.
However, reality was quite disappointing. "People think that if they watch a video 20 times, they'll score higher than if they watch it once," Kardas said, "but their actual performance shows no evidence of learning."
Surprisingly, passive observation can even increase people's confidence in their ability to perform complex, life-or-death tasks, such as landing an airplane.
This research was led by Keira Jordan, a doctoral student at the University of Waikato in New Zealand, who was directly inspired by Kardas' research. "We wanted to test the limits of this phenomenon - whether it applies to real professional skills," she noted, pointing out that flying a plane requires hundreds of hours of training and a deep understanding of physics, meteorology, and engineering, which cannot be learned through short videos.
Participants were first told, "Imagine you are on a small commuter plane. Due to an emergency, the pilot is incapacitated, and you are the only person who can land the plane." Then, half of the participants watched a 4-minute video showing the process of a pilot landing a plane, while the others did not see the video.
The key is that the video didn't even show the pilot's hand movements throughout the process - it was useless for teaching. However, many people who watched the video became more optimistic about their ability to land a plane safely.
"Their confidence increased by about 30% compared to those who didn't watch the video," Jordan said.
Real-Life Dilemmas
These knowledge illusions can have significant consequences. Overconfidence in one's knowledge can mean inadequate preparation before interviews or presentations, and feeling embarrassed when asked to demonstrate expertise.
Overconfidence can be a particular problem when seeking promotion. From a distance, observing others, you may think you know what the job requires and that you have acquired the necessary skills. However, once you start the job, you may find that the role is much more complex than it appears.
Overconfidence can also lead us to underestimate the value of our colleagues. Just as we mistake knowledge obtained from a Google search for our own, we may not realize how much we rely on the technical skills and abilities of those around us.
"People sometimes mistakenly think that what they know is part of themselves when they observe the skills and knowledge of others," Jordan said.
If we start to claim our colleagues' knowledge as our own, we may be less likely to remember and appreciate their contributions - a common form of arrogance in the workplace. Overestimating our own knowledge and forgetting the support of others can lead to serious problems when we try to complete a project on our own.
==What can people do to avoid these pitfalls? One simple solution is to== test themselves.
==For example, if you are evaluating your ability to perform an unfamiliar task, don't rely solely on a vague understanding of the concepts involved. Instead,== spend more time carefully considering the specific steps required to achieve the goal. You may find significant gaps in your knowledge that need to be filled before you step forward on your own. ==A better approach is to find an expert and ask them what they are doing - such a conversation should correct any arrogant assumptions you may hold.==
Considering that technology-assisted tools may inflate your confidence in knowledge, you can also examine your internet habits. Fisher suggests pausing and trying to recall the facts before resorting to internet searches. By consciously recognizing your mental gaps, you may start to evaluate your memory and its limitations more realistically. "It requires a willingness to experience setbacks," he says, "you have to feel your own ignorance, which can be uncomfortable."
The ultimate goal is to cultivate some humility - one of the classic "virtues of knowledge" advocated by philosophers. By recognizing our knowledge illusions and acknowledging the limitations of our understanding, we may all be able to avoid some unfortunate thinking traps and enjoy wiser thinking and decision-making.
www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220812-the-illusion-of-knowledge-that-makes-people-overconfident